Friday, January 5, 2018

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/JPY - Look for upside acceleration in wave 3/ of 3 the wonder to behold...


GBP/JPY - Monthly



GBP/JPY - Weekly

GBP/JPY - Daily


GBP/JPY - 4 Hourly 

Cups with handle

GBP/JPY - Look for upside acceleration in wave 3/ of 3 the wonder to behold...

A break above minor resistance at 153.41 will release a lot of build up energy and should cause GBP/JPY to accelerate higher towards 159.00 as the first minor target, but longer term, a continuation higher to 164.85 and 172.00 should be expected. 
The classic technical analysis also shows a nice pair of "Cups with handle" formation ready to take GBP/JPY much higher (see chart 5). 
If my long-term count is correct, then we are entering wave 3/ of 3, which normally is the strongest of the waves and the prices action here, often becomes almost vertical. 
So be ready to pull the trigger for a nice big rally - "The wonder to behold" as Pretcher says it...  

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Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Elliott wave analysis of Facebook - Peak expected near 187.17


Facebook - Peak expected at 187.17

Facebook has seen an amazing rally since the September 2012 low at 17.55. This wave [3] rally should be close to completion - Ideally near 187.17 for a correction in wave [4]. As wave [2] was a simple and deep zig-zag correction, we should expect a complex and shallow correction in wave [4]. The ideal target for this wave [4] correction is seen in the 114.77 - 115.93 area. 

The corrective structure of wave [4] should be either a flat or a triangle consolidation. If the corrective structure proves to be a triangle, then the low will be seen early (likely in the A-wave down). 

Short-term a break below minor support at 168.89 will be a good indication that Facebook has peaked in wave [3] and wave [4] is developing. So tighten up your stops and don't fall in love with Facebook at these levels.

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Saturday, November 4, 2017

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/USD - Correcting in wave 2 before the rally higher

GBP/USD - Monthly Elliott Wave Count

GBP/USD - Daily Elliott Wave Count

GBP/USD - Correcting in wave 2 before the rally higher

Cable is fighting a lot of opposing forces at the moment. The rally in wave 1 stopped just below the 30 year horizontal resistance-line. This line acted as support for Cable since January 1986 and was broken in June 2016, which shifted its position from support to resistance. However, I think the dip below soon will break back above this horizontal pivot point near 1.3700. 
From an Elliott wave point of the view, my long term count shows, that an expanded flat B-wave is developing. We saw wave A rally from the 2009 low at 1.3504 to a high of 1.7191 in July 2014 from where wave B took over. The decline in wave B became almost exactly 138.2% longer than wave A and completed with the test of 1.1950 in October 2016 from where an impulsive rally in wave C took over. We saw wave 1 rally from the 1.1950 low to a high of 1.3658, just below the horizontal pivot point near 1.3700 and the correction in wave 2 is currently developing, for a decline close to the 1.2780 - 1.2822 from where a strong rally is expected in wave 3. 
The long-term cycle analysis also supports a rally in the coming years. The long-term cycle bottom in November 2016, whereas the price bottomed the month before. The next cycle peak is not seen before November 2020, which supports the expectation of a continuation higher over the coming years. 
If we zoom in to the daily chart, we can see, that wave 2 already has completed wave A and B and wave C lower towards the 1.2780 - 1.2822 is developing. Once wave C and 2 completes near the support cluster a strong rally will be expected in wave 3.  

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Wednesday, November 1, 2017

Elliott Wave Analysis of the German DAX - A potential large degree top could be in place soon



Elliott Wave Analysis of the German DAX - A potential large degree top could be in place soon

In my post from October 5 - 2017 I called for a continuation of the uptrend towards the 13,424 - 13,435 this target was eclipsed today and a large scale top could be seen soon.

A large degree five wave rally can be counted from the March 2009 low of 3,589 and from February 2016 a minute degree five wave rally can be counted.

To indicate that the top is in place, a break below 13,197 and more important a break below support at 12,931 will be needed.

The risk/reward ratio no longer favor the upside, so tighten your stops.

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Thursday, October 5, 2017

Elliott Wave analysis of DAX - Short-term exhaustion near 13,029




DAX - Short-term exhaustion expected near 13,029. 
The German DAX posted a new all-time high yesterday at 12,976. This is in line with the expectation of a final rally closer to the resistance cluster-area between 13,424 - 13,435. 
Short-term, the rally from 12,044 looks stretch and is expected to run into a temperary to near 13,029 in wave iii for a correction in wave iv towards 12,797 and the a final impulsive rally into the 13,424 - 13,435 area to complete the impulsive rally, not only, from the February 2016 low at 8,695, but also from the March 2009 low at 3,589. 
Once this impulsive rally is complete a larger corrective decline should be expected, but for now, we need to stay focused towards the upside and the important 13,424 - 13,435 area. 
I would like to add one word of caution. We are in the final stages of the rally from for March 2009 and once the top is in place a larger correction towards at least 8,700 should be expected. This means that from the current level of 12,955 a potential profit of close to 4% is available, but the potential downside risk is close to 33% or almost a 10 to 1 risk/reward. 

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Sunday, September 10, 2017

Eliiott Wave Analysis - Brent Crude Oil headed for USD 70.00


Brent Crude Oil headed for USD 70.00

Brent Crude Oil bottomed at the modified Pitchfork support-line near 27.00 and has since rallied nicely higher. Brent Crude oil is now break the resistance-line from the May 2015 high at 69.59, which calls for a continuation higher towards 70.00, which also is where the pitchfork resistance-line is seen in mid-December 2017. 

Depending on the price-action after the 70.00 target has been hit will determine, whether the rally from May 2015 only is a correction or a new impulsive rally. 

For now let's concentrate on the rally higher to 70.00.

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Wednesday, August 23, 2017

Elliott wave analysis of AUD/NZD - Upside acceleration expected

AUD/NZD - Monthly

AUD/NZD - Weekly

AUD/NZD - Daily

AUD/NZD - 4 Hourly 

Upside acceleration expected 

AUD/NZD saw a long-term low in April 2015 at 1.0020 and has since building a solid base from where to rally strongly higher. 
From an Elliott Wave point of view wave 1 of the 1.0020 low completed at 1.1429 and was followed by a deep and time comsuming wave 2 zig-zag correction that bottomed in September 2016 and since then wave 3 higher towards 1.2958 has been building. The start of this wave 3 has been building a series of waves 1 and 2 and it finally seems that a series of wave 3's is ready to unfold.
This means upside acceleration first to important resistance near 1.1420, but once this resistance is taken out, the way higher towards 1.2958 seems to be free of major hurdles. 
Short-term minor resistance is seen at 1.1020, but once this minor bump is overcome the next target to look for is important resistance near 1.1420. 

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