Sunday, September 10, 2017

Eliiott Wave Analysis - Brent Crude Oil headed for USD 70.00

Brent Crude Oil headed for USD 70.00

Brent Crude Oil bottomed at the modified Pitchfork support-line near 27.00 and has since rallied nicely higher. Brent Crude oil is now break the resistance-line from the May 2015 high at 69.59, which calls for a continuation higher towards 70.00, which also is where the pitchfork resistance-line is seen in mid-December 2017. 

Depending on the price-action after the 70.00 target has been hit will determine, whether the rally from May 2015 only is a correction or a new impulsive rally. 

For now let's concentrate on the rally higher to 70.00.

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Wednesday, August 23, 2017

Elliott wave analysis of AUD/NZD - Upside acceleration expected

AUD/NZD - Monthly

AUD/NZD - Weekly

AUD/NZD - Daily

AUD/NZD - 4 Hourly 

Upside acceleration expected 

AUD/NZD saw a long-term low in April 2015 at 1.0020 and has since building a solid base from where to rally strongly higher. 
From an Elliott Wave point of view wave 1 of the 1.0020 low completed at 1.1429 and was followed by a deep and time comsuming wave 2 zig-zag correction that bottomed in September 2016 and since then wave 3 higher towards 1.2958 has been building. The start of this wave 3 has been building a series of waves 1 and 2 and it finally seems that a series of wave 3's is ready to unfold.
This means upside acceleration first to important resistance near 1.1420, but once this resistance is taken out, the way higher towards 1.2958 seems to be free of major hurdles. 
Short-term minor resistance is seen at 1.1020, but once this minor bump is overcome the next target to look for is important resistance near 1.1420. 

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Wednesday, August 9, 2017

Elliott wave Analysis - Time for a stock index correction

S&P 500 - Daily

S&P 500 - Weekly

DJI - Daily 

DJI - Weekly

Nikkei 225 - Weekly
Nifty 50 - Weekly 

Time for a stock index correction 

Most of the global stock indices has rallied nicely since early 2016. A rally that only has seen minor corrections especially lately and especially for the US stock indices. 

But it looks as a peak is near and renewed downside pressure should be seen shortly. The S&P 500 and the DJI is only expected to experience minor corrections, whereas the Nikkei 225 and the Indian Nifty 50 likely is running into more serve corrections in the months ahead. 

Even-though I only look for a temporary correction for the US-indices and do expect new rallies to new all-time highs later this year, we should be approaching an important peaks and a more sever corrections. 

Going back to the March 2009 lows, a five rally can be counted in both the S&P 500 and the DJI, so it's only a question of time before a long-term peak is in place. 

So this is not the time to be overly bullish stocks.

Monday, July 31, 2017

Elliott wave count of EUR/USD - Long-term low possibly in place at 1.0339

EUR/USD - Monthly

EUR/USD - Weekly
EUR/USD - Daily 
EUR/USD - 4 Hourly 

Long-term likely in place at 1.0339 

It has been a while since I last update this blog. I intend to update it more regular going forward. 

I was originally looking for the decline in EUR/USD from 1.6038 to move below par (see the previous long-term view here), but the long-term cycles didn't allow this to happen even though, we were pretty close, with the low seen at 1.0339 in early January 2017. 

With the low in early January at 1.0339 wave 5 did make a new low for the impulsive decline from 1.4940 and thereby fulfilled all requirements for the EWP. 

If wave (C) completed at 1.0339, then we can look for a new uptrend into January 2025 according to long-term cycle analysis. 

Looking at the 4-hourly and the daily time-frames the rally from 1.0339 does look impulsive confirming that a long-term low could be in place. 

I would like to see the rally from 1.0339 break above resistance at 1.2042 as that will break above the low of wave 1 and a overlap between wave 1 and 4 is not allowed under the EWP unless an ending diagonal is developing. The decline from 1.4940 does not fit the profile of an ending diagonal. 

Short-term, I'm looking for a correction in wave iv to at least the 23.6% corrective target of wave iii at 1.1474, but a deeper correction in wave iv closer to the 38.2% corrective target at 1.1286 can't be excluded, before a turn higher in wave v to above 1.1777 and ideally to just above 1.2042 to complete wave v and 1. Setting the stage for a correction in wave 2. 

Thursday, May 4, 2017

Elliott wave analysis of AUD/NZD - Time for acceleration and extension

AUD/NZD - Daily

AUD/NZD - 4 Hourly 

 Time for acceleration and extension 

 AUD/NZD is about to enter into wave iii/ of iii of 3/ of 3, which normally is the most powerful of the impulsive waves. This is the wave which accelerates the most and the wave where the largest extension normally is seen, so you don't want to miss this wave when it starts to unfold. 

The first good indication that the next impulsive rally is developing, will be seen upon a break above minor resistance seen at 1.0811, while a break above resistance at 1.0936 will accelerate prices higher 1.1463 and 1.1761, but the long-term target is seen much higher at 1.2350.
This is the wave to behold, so be ready! 
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Friday, March 24, 2017

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/USD - Triangle consolidation in wave 4 finally looks complete

GBP/USD - Weekly

GBP/USD - Daily 

GBP/USD - 4 Hourly

GBP/USD - Triangle consolidation in wave 4 finally looks complete 

The triangle consolidation, which has dominated the picture since early October 2016 is finally coming to an end and renewed downside pressure in wave 5 should now be expected towards at least 1.0755 and likely even closer to the long term target seen at 0.9534 (see the long-term outlook here).

Short-term, a break below minor support seen at 1.2422 will be the first good indication that wave E of 4 has completed, while a break below support seen at 1.2333 will confirm that wave 4 has completed and wave 5 lower is unfolding.

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Thursday, February 9, 2017

AUD/NZD - Should we expect a different outcome this time?

AUD/NZD - Should we expect a different outcome this time?

Please take a close to at the chart above. It shows the bottom-formation that played out in USD/JPY from 2010 to late 2012 (the black line), before USD/JPY took off for a more than 50% gain. 

The red line, shows the current price-action in AUD/NZD. Do you see the similarity? If you do, then should we expect a different outcome this time around?

I would not bet on a different outcome.

I also don't say they have to be identical, but I think it would be a rather safe bet to place on them be close to similar.

When AUD/NZD starts to pick-up speed as I expect it will, It will be almost impossible to enter without a large risk. Just look what happened in USD/JPY, when it started to pick-up speed. From late September 2012 to May 2013, there was almost no corrections. This is why you want to be in wave 3, when it takes off.

As Robert Prechter says it. "Wave 3 is a wonder to behold!"

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