Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Elliott wave analysis of Facebook - Peak expected near 187.17


Facebook - Peak expected at 187.17

Facebook has seen an amazing rally since the September 2012 low at 17.55. This wave [3] rally should be close to completion - Ideally near 187.17 for a correction in wave [4]. As wave [2] was a simple and deep zig-zag correction, we should expect a complex and shallow correction in wave [4]. The ideal target for this wave [4] correction is seen in the 114.77 - 115.93 area. 

The corrective structure of wave [4] should be either a flat or a triangle consolidation. If the corrective structure proves to be a triangle, then the low will be seen early (likely in the A-wave down). 

Short-term a break below minor support at 168.89 will be a good indication that Facebook has peaked in wave [3] and wave [4] is developing. So tighten up your stops and don't fall in love with Facebook at these levels.

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Saturday, November 4, 2017

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/USD - Correcting in wave 2 before the rally higher

GBP/USD - Monthly Elliott Wave Count

GBP/USD - Daily Elliott Wave Count

GBP/USD - Correcting in wave 2 before the rally higher

Cable is fighting a lot of opposing forces at the moment. The rally in wave 1 stopped just below the 30 year horizontal resistance-line. This line acted as support for Cable since January 1986 and was broken in June 2016, which shifted its position from support to resistance. However, I think the dip below soon will break back above this horizontal pivot point near 1.3700. 
From an Elliott wave point of the view, my long term count shows, that an expanded flat B-wave is developing. We saw wave A rally from the 2009 low at 1.3504 to a high of 1.7191 in July 2014 from where wave B took over. The decline in wave B became almost exactly 138.2% longer than wave A and completed with the test of 1.1950 in October 2016 from where an impulsive rally in wave C took over. We saw wave 1 rally from the 1.1950 low to a high of 1.3658, just below the horizontal pivot point near 1.3700 and the correction in wave 2 is currently developing, for a decline close to the 1.2780 - 1.2822 from where a strong rally is expected in wave 3. 
The long-term cycle analysis also supports a rally in the coming years. The long-term cycle bottom in November 2016, whereas the price bottomed the month before. The next cycle peak is not seen before November 2020, which supports the expectation of a continuation higher over the coming years. 
If we zoom in to the daily chart, we can see, that wave 2 already has completed wave A and B and wave C lower towards the 1.2780 - 1.2822 is developing. Once wave C and 2 completes near the support cluster a strong rally will be expected in wave 3.  

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Wednesday, November 1, 2017

Elliott Wave Analysis of the German DAX - A potential large degree top could be in place soon



Elliott Wave Analysis of the German DAX - A potential large degree top could be in place soon

In my post from October 5 - 2017 I called for a continuation of the uptrend towards the 13,424 - 13,435 this target was eclipsed today and a large scale top could be seen soon.

A large degree five wave rally can be counted from the March 2009 low of 3,589 and from February 2016 a minute degree five wave rally can be counted.

To indicate that the top is in place, a break below 13,197 and more important a break below support at 12,931 will be needed.

The risk/reward ratio no longer favor the upside, so tighten your stops.

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Thursday, October 5, 2017

Elliott Wave analysis of DAX - Short-term exhaustion near 13,029




DAX - Short-term exhaustion expected near 13,029. 
The German DAX posted a new all-time high yesterday at 12,976. This is in line with the expectation of a final rally closer to the resistance cluster-area between 13,424 - 13,435. 
Short-term, the rally from 12,044 looks stretch and is expected to run into a temperary to near 13,029 in wave iii for a correction in wave iv towards 12,797 and the a final impulsive rally into the 13,424 - 13,435 area to complete the impulsive rally, not only, from the February 2016 low at 8,695, but also from the March 2009 low at 3,589. 
Once this impulsive rally is complete a larger corrective decline should be expected, but for now, we need to stay focused towards the upside and the important 13,424 - 13,435 area. 
I would like to add one word of caution. We are in the final stages of the rally from for March 2009 and once the top is in place a larger correction towards at least 8,700 should be expected. This means that from the current level of 12,955 a potential profit of close to 4% is available, but the potential downside risk is close to 33% or almost a 10 to 1 risk/reward. 

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Sunday, September 10, 2017

Eliiott Wave Analysis - Brent Crude Oil headed for USD 70.00


Brent Crude Oil headed for USD 70.00

Brent Crude Oil bottomed at the modified Pitchfork support-line near 27.00 and has since rallied nicely higher. Brent Crude oil is now break the resistance-line from the May 2015 high at 69.59, which calls for a continuation higher towards 70.00, which also is where the pitchfork resistance-line is seen in mid-December 2017. 

Depending on the price-action after the 70.00 target has been hit will determine, whether the rally from May 2015 only is a correction or a new impulsive rally. 

For now let's concentrate on the rally higher to 70.00.

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Wednesday, August 23, 2017

Elliott wave analysis of AUD/NZD - Upside acceleration expected

AUD/NZD - Monthly

AUD/NZD - Weekly

AUD/NZD - Daily

AUD/NZD - 4 Hourly 

Upside acceleration expected 

AUD/NZD saw a long-term low in April 2015 at 1.0020 and has since building a solid base from where to rally strongly higher. 
From an Elliott Wave point of view wave 1 of the 1.0020 low completed at 1.1429 and was followed by a deep and time comsuming wave 2 zig-zag correction that bottomed in September 2016 and since then wave 3 higher towards 1.2958 has been building. The start of this wave 3 has been building a series of waves 1 and 2 and it finally seems that a series of wave 3's is ready to unfold.
This means upside acceleration first to important resistance near 1.1420, but once this resistance is taken out, the way higher towards 1.2958 seems to be free of major hurdles. 
Short-term minor resistance is seen at 1.1020, but once this minor bump is overcome the next target to look for is important resistance near 1.1420. 

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Wednesday, August 9, 2017

Elliott wave Analysis - Time for a stock index correction

S&P 500 - Daily

S&P 500 - Weekly

DJI - Daily 

DJI - Weekly


Nikkei 225 - Weekly
Nifty 50 - Weekly 

Time for a stock index correction 

Most of the global stock indices has rallied nicely since early 2016. A rally that only has seen minor corrections especially lately and especially for the US stock indices. 

But it looks as a peak is near and renewed downside pressure should be seen shortly. The S&P 500 and the DJI is only expected to experience minor corrections, whereas the Nikkei 225 and the Indian Nifty 50 likely is running into more serve corrections in the months ahead. 

Even-though I only look for a temporary correction for the US-indices and do expect new rallies to new all-time highs later this year, we should be approaching an important peaks and a more sever corrections. 

Going back to the March 2009 lows, a five rally can be counted in both the S&P 500 and the DJI, so it's only a question of time before a long-term peak is in place. 

So this is not the time to be overly bullish stocks.